Palm oil’s world domination is the result of five factors: first, it has replaced less healthy fats in foods in the west. Second, producers have pushed to keep its price low. Third, it has replaced more expensive oils in home and personal care products. Fourth, again because it is cheap, it has been widely adopted as cooking oil in Asian countries. Finally, as those Asian countries have grown richer, they have begun to consume more fat, much of it in the form of palm oil.Widespread adoption of palm oil began with processed foods. In the 1960s, scientists began to warn that butter’s high saturated fat content may increase the risk of heart disease. Food manufacturers, including the British-Dutch conglomerate Unilever, began to replace it with margarine, made with vegetable oils low in saturated fat. By the early 1990s, though, it became clear that the process by which the oils in margarine were made, known as partial hydrogenation, actually created a different kind of fat – trans fat – that was even unhealthier than saturated fat. The switchover happened suddenly in 1994 (project paddington). It started replacing it with palm oil.Today, more than two-thirds of palm oil goes into food. Consumption in the EU more than tripled between Project Paddington and 2015. That same year, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) gave food manufacturers three years to get rid of all trans fats from every margarine, cookie, cake, pie, popcorn, frozen pizza, doughnut and biscuit sold in the US. Virtually all of it has now been replaced with palm oil.
One of the commonalities of economic development, across the globe and throughout history, is that a population’s consumption of fat grows in lockstep with its income, and the subcontinent has been no exception. But palm oil is no longer just used for home cooking in India – today it is a big part of the country’s growing junk food industry. India’s fast food market grew 83% just between 2011 and 2016.
Demand for vegetable oil has been growing way faster than world population. (further highlighting the point that as income grows, consumption of fat grows. But perhaps the other bigger trend is the packaged food and snacks industry across the globe).
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SILVER
The Bretton Woods Agreement (1944–1971) - The Bretton Woods Agreement established a new global monetary system, pegging the U.S. dollar to gold and indirectly affecting silver’s role in the economy. As the dollar became the world’s primary reserve currency, silver’s use in coinage declined, reducing its demand as a monetary metal. This shift marked the beginning of silver’s transition from a monetary asset to an industrial commodity.
The Hunt Brothers Silver Manipulation (1979–1980) - One of the most dramatic episodes in silver’s history occurred when the Hunt brothers, Nelson and William, attempted to corner the silver market. Their aggressive buying drove prices from $6 per ounce in early 1979 to ton early $50 per ounce by January 1980. However, regulatory intervention and changes to trading rules led to a sudden collapse in prices, wiping out billions in value and leaving a lasting impact on commodity markets.
The 2008 Global Financial Crisis - The 2008 financial crisis triggered a flight to safety, with investors turning to precious metals like silver and gold. Silver prices rose from $10/oz per ounce in late 2008 to nearly to nearly 50 per ounce by 2011, driven by fears of inflation, currency devaluation, and economic instability. This period marked one of silver’s strongest bull markets in modern history.
Following chart is helpful to understand the growing demand of silver in industrial uses, esp photovoltaics.
While the supply is not growing as quickly resulting in deficit
Following are the reserves for silver across the world. To note that the biggest producer at the moment is Mexico (6,118 tonnes, 24% of global production). Although the highest reserves are in Peru.
Silver Mining history:
The story of silver mining began about 5,000 years ago.Silver was first mined around 3,000 BCE in Anatolia, now located in modern-day Turkey. The precious metal helped early civilizations in the Near East, Ancient Greece to flourish.In about 1,200 BCE the center of silver production shifted to Greece’s Laurium mines, where it continued to feed the region’s growing empires, even providing currency for ancient Athens. By about 100 CE, the center of silver mining moved to Spain, where the mines became a major supplier for the Roman Empire and an essential trading component along the Asian spice routes.However, no other single event in silver’s history rivals the discovery by European conquerors of the white metal in the Americas following Columbus’s landing in the New World in 1492. The events that unfolded in the following years changed the face of silver and the world forever.The Spanish conquest of the Americas led to an increase in the mining of silver that dramatically eclipsed anything that had come before that time. Between 1500 and 1800, Bolivia, Peru and Mexico accounted for over 85 percent of world silver production and trade as it bolstered Spanish influence in the New World and elsewhere.Later, mining spread to other countries, most notably the United States with the discovery of the Comstock Lode in Nevada.Silver production continued to expand worldwide, growing from 40 to 80 million ounces annually by the 1870s.The period from 1876 to 1920 witnessed an explosion in both technological innovation and exploitation of new regions worldwide. Production over the last quarter of the 19th century quadrupled over the average of the first 75 years to a total of nearly 120 million ounces annually.New silver discoveries in Australia, Central America and Europe added to total world silver production. The twenty years between 1900 and 1920 resulted in a 50 % increase in global production, and brought the total to about 190 million ounces annually. These increases were spurred by new discoveries in Canada, the United States, Africa, Mexico, Chile, Japan, and elsewhere.During the 1900s, new mining techniques contributed to a massive rise in overall silver production. Breakthroughs included steam-assisted drilling, mine dewatering, and improved haulage. Further, advances in mining techniques enhanced the ability to separate silver from other ores and made it possible to handle larger volumes of material.These new methods were critical to the increased volume of production, as many of the high-grade ores throughout the world had been largely used up by the end of the 19th century.More than 5,000 years after ancient cultures first began to mine in relatively small amounts, silver mine production has now grown to almost 800 million ounces in 2019.
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Nigeria/ Palm Oil
Once a global leader, the country's dominance in palm oil production symbolised its agricultural might and immense prospect. However, over the decades, this once-flourishing sector has wilted, turning Nigeria from a leading exporter to a net importer of palm oil.
Over reliance on the wild and semi-wild groves and their variety undermined the long-term competitiveness of Nigeria’s oil palm sector. With its thick shell and inefficient oil yield, the dominant dura palm species couldn't compete with the high-yield, disease-resistant varieties emerging in Southeast Asia.
In addition, limited investment in infrastructure and the disruptive Nigerian Civil War (1967-1970) significantly hampered Nigeria's palm oil industry. The war broke out in the southern-eastern region (the oil rivers), a key area for palm oil production, creating a ripple effect that disrupted output, hindered long-term recovery, and stifled modernization efforts.
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At the current time, the scale of palm oil is of a different magnitude in Malaysia and Indonesia. But this is a snapshot of 1970, when Nigeria was the key production country for Palm Oil.
Malaysia and Indonesia overtook Nigeria as the world's largest palm oil producers, with both countries now producing over 80% of total global output and Indonesia alone contributing 59%.
A couple of reasons for this change (apart from Nigeria's internal reasons):
Modern Plantation Systems: Unlike the scattered nature of the wild/ semi-wild groves, a more modern plantation system was promoted and adopted where oil palms were arranged in dense rows and cultivated in large estates. This system promoted a triangular planting pattern, optimizing space utilization, sunlight penetration, and efficient management. Such a structured approach encouraged significant capital injections into plantation and nucleus estate projects, massively expanding cultivated areas and significantly boosting productivity.
Improved Breeding Programs: Investment in research and breeding programs led to the development and widespread adoption of high-yielding tenera oil palm seedlings, which replaced the traditional dura variety. The introduction of pollinating weevil in the 1980s further increased oil production by improving fertilization, fruit sets, and oil contents. As a result, high-density plantations with these hybrid tenera palms significantly boosted palm oil production.
Nigeria is still one of the large consumers of Palm Oil.
Following is the changing pattern of palm oil usage in EU
The first licences for bitumen exploration were granted by the British colonial administration in 1903. In pursuit of commercially available petroleum, a joint venture of Royal Dutch Shell and British Petroleum found oil in Oloibiri, Bayelsa State in 1956. In 1958 full-scale export production commenced from the Oloibiri oil wells.
In those early days, Nigeria produced barely 5,000 barrels of oil a day. However, within a decade, production had jumped almost a hundred-fold to over 400,000 barrels a day and by 1974, Nigeria’s oil output exceeded 2.2 million barrels a day. Its 258 oil fields and over 2,000 well heads produce up to 2 million barrels a day. In addition to holding substantial reserves of crude oil, Nigeria also holds the world’s ninth largest reservoir of natural gas.
While a few large fields account for a significant proportion of oil output, the industry also features a long tail of smaller and lower productivity wells, which are spread across the entire region, often close to local communities, and with some often located in hard-to- access locations deep within the Niger Delta. The Niger Delta environment - dominated by a dense network of rivers, marshland, swamps and mangrove forests – as well as its uncertain security situation, can render some of these smaller wells difficult to access and maintain effectively, especially if there is a lack of suitably adapted operational infrastructure.
Almost 95% of Nigeria’s total hydrocarbon output comes from the Niger Delta, a 40,000 km labyrinth of wetlands, mangroves, swamp forests, creeks and farmlands located in the country’s south.While more than 100 companies operate through their subsidiaries in Nigeria’s upstream oil sector, the five IOCs – Shell, Chevron, Total, Eni (AGIP) and Exxon-Mobil – together account for around c.75 percent of Nigeria’s hydrocarbon output
Nigeria. Economic features
Agriculture
Roughly between one-fifth to one-half of all Nigerians obtain a living from agricultural production. Most are small-scale subsistence farmers who produce only a little surplus for sale and who derive additional income from one or more cash crops and from the sale of local crafts. Because the soil is not totally amenable to mechanized equipment, the hoe and matchet (machete) continue to be the dominant farm implements. The shortage of farmland in some localities and limited access to land in others are among the factors that restrict the size of farmland cultivated per family.
Root crops—notably yams, taro, and cassava—are the main food crops in the south, while grains and legumes—such as sorghum, millet, cowpeas, and corn (maize)—are the staple crops of the drier north. Rice is also an important domestic crop. Trees—notably oil palm, cacao, and rubber trees—are the principal industrial crops of the south, while peanuts (groundnuts) and cotton are produced in the north. Small-scale farmers dominate the production of industrial crops, as they do with staple food crops. Cocoa beans, from the cacao tree, are the major agricultural export; production of other industrial crops has declined, owing to the general stagnation in agriculture.
Mining, Manufacturing
Resource extraction is the most important sector of the economy. The most economically valuable minerals are crude oil, natural gas, coal, tin, and columbite (an iron-bearing mineral that accompanies tin).
The federal government has established such capital-intensive industries as steel mills, pulp and paper mills, petrochemical plants, and an aluminum smelter. In the past, large-scale manufacturing—dominated by the production of textiles, tobacco, beverages, and cement—was controlled by foreign investors. The government’s indigenization efforts have altered the ownership situation, although the management and effective control of most large factories have remained in the hands of expatriate representatives of multinational corporations.
The main markets for Nigerian exports—consisting mostly of crude oil, cocoa beans, and rubber—include India, the United States, and the countries of the European Union (EU). The main imports are machinery and transport equipment, manufactured goods (iron and steel products, textiles, and paper products), chemicals, and food, most of which come from the EU, China, and the United States.
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The poverty rate is estimated to have reached 38.9% in 2023, with an estimated 87 million Nigerians living below the poverty line — the world’s second-largest poor population after India. Spatial inequality continues to be large, with the best-performing regions of Nigeria comparing favorably to upper middle-income countries, while the worst performing states fare below the average for low-income. In most areas of Nigeria, state capacity is low, service delivery is limited, and insecurity and violence are widespread.
Strengthening macroeconomic fundamentals will allow structural reforms to be pursued and economic growth to be restored. The current low social and economic equilibrium could be switched to one marked by a better funded and more effective State that provides efficient public services, public goods, and a conducive economic environment for the private sector to flourish and create more quality jobs for Nigerians.
Politics
Nigeria is a product of British colonialism and gained its independence in 1960. Being a plural society with multiple ethnic groups, the Nigerian political system is built on a three-tier federal system (federal, state, and local governments). Modeled after the American model of democracy, Nigeria operates a presidential system that produces a president exercising enormous executive power at the federal level and a governor as head of the executive in the thirty-six (subnational) states in the federation. The legislative system is bicameral at the federal level and unicameral at the state level. With an estimated 300 ethnic groups, Nigeria is often considered the most diverse society in Africa.
Politics in Nigeria since independence has oscillated between civilian democracy and military rule. Democracy failed at three different periods before the present democratic regime, which began in 1999. The military interventions and abrupt end to democratic rules give room for the periodization of the First, Second, Third, and Fourth Republics that is often employed as a framework of analysis in the study of Nigerian politics and government.
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