10. Green Revolution

The world population was 2.5 billion by 1950, 4.4 billion by 1980, 6.1 billion by 2000, and 8.2 billion at the moment (2025).

This has needed the food growth to keep pace with the population growth as well. And the following chart shows that it has:

When Norman Borlaug arrived in Mexico in 1944, his goal was to breed a new strain of wheat adapted to local conditions and featuring a short, strong stalk. Borlaug built research stations in the lowlands and at higher altitudes. He crossed a variety of wheat strains and finally succeeded in developing a new grain – dwarf wheat – that was viable in areas between the equator and the 40th parallel. In 1956 Mexico became self-sufficient in wheat production for the first time, and the success continued. Borlaug’s efforts during the severe food shortage in India and Pakistan in the 1960s led to a dramatic increase in wheat production. The Green Revolution had become a reality.

In 2000, around 2 billion tonnes of foodgrains was produced. This number is close to 3 billion tonnes at the moment. (At the moment, wheat and rice are close to 800 million tonnes each, and maize is close to 1.2 billion tonnes. Most of maize is not directly used for human consumption - it goes on to feed animals, and is used for ethanol as well).

The growth has come from different sources - increased farming area, increased farm sizes allowing efficiency and at times monoculture, use of chemicals -fertilizers and pesticides, and most importantly improvement of yield through new strains of crops. What perhaps adds to this is the changing plate - a lot more livestock is consumed than say 50 years ago. (Some of the increased food grain production goes towards animal feed.)

World's four most important crops are - rice, wheat, maize, soyabean - which indirectly (as feed grain) or directly provide two-thirds of the calories and protein consumed by humans.

Following chart shows the work on grain yield increases:

Following is more recent yield improvement across the four key grains:

Following chart shows the hectares under production, followed by a time slice chart on farm size and production, to get a sense of distribution of farms.

And yet still, for perspective, here is the cropland compared to pasture land. (Total world land is 13 billion hectares).

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The take-off in crop yield increase in the mid 1960s averted the predictions of widespread famine of the time. This yield increase, until the turn of the millennium, led to steadily reduced real prices of food and a dramatically slower expansion of arable area. If this desirable situation (with respect to price and arable area) is not to deteriorate under the pressure of relentless growth in demand, further substantial increases in crop yield are essential. Real prices cannot be allowed to rise greatly, because (as seen recently) this translates into increased malnutrition and misery in the world’s two billion poorer people, and to civil unrest. Meanwhile, in most cases, for environmental reasons, crop area increase is a difficult and undesirable option. (From here)

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Since the mid-1900s, a large portion of world agriculture has transitioned towards factory farming and intensive agriculture, and global meat consumption has risen as well. Although not every country or context is the same, according to this extensive review, worldwide meat consumption has almost doubled in the last 50 years, from 23.1kg per person in 1961 to 42.2kg per person in 2011. 

Following chart shows the food consumption mix - there is a generally higher consumption/availability on per capital basis, and the mix has changed because of animal products.

The following chart shows where the yield increases and production increase has been used:

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So food production, meat production has not just kept up, it has increased the average consumption.

 And yet, perhaps, to see all this in the following context:

The destiny of world civilization depends upon providing a decent standard of living for all mankind.

Civilization as it is known today could not have evolved, nor can it survive, without an adequate food supply. Yet food is something that is taken for granted by most world leaders despite the fact that more than half of the population of the world is hungry

Almost certainly, however, the first essential component of social justice is adequate food for all mankind. Food is the moral right of all who are born into this world. Yet today fifty percent of the world’s population goes hungry.  - From Norman Barlaug Nobel Lecture, 1970

Half of the world was undernourished in 1970, but even today, 1 in 3 people in the world struggle with moderate to severe food security.