Friday, August 15, 2025

Some notes - Pharmaceuticals

  • Total global market is between USD 1.5-1.7 trillion. Growing at 6-6.5% over next few years
  • North America accounts for ~half of global pharma sales  (!) - with ~4% of its people
  • Increasing growth in other countries with better access to healthcare
  • Revenue share
    • Conventional small molecule drugs ~55%
    • Biologics and Biosimilars are growing market with large molcule therapies
    • Branded Prescription drugs ~87% of revenue. But by volume 80%+ is generics or off-patent. 
    • Growing presence of generics
    • Contract manufacvturing is ~686 billion of the total.
    • Cold chain packaging ~USD 83 billion (?)
  • Large companies
    • J&J 88 b rev
    • Merch 64b (Blockbuster Keytruda $29.5nb)
    • Pfizer 63.6b
    • Others: AbbVie (~56 B), AstraZeneca (~54 B), Roche (~52 B), Novartis (~48 B), Sanofi (~47 B), Eli Lilly (~45.8 B), Novo Nordisk (~44.2 B), GSK (~40.5 B), Amgen (~33 B), et
    • Eli Lilly valued at USD 842 b - highest in terms of market cap
  • India is the largest generic API and vaccine exporter globally. 
  • India and China dominate volume in generics. Although price wise US is much bigger profitable market for pharma companies.


**


In the US
  • Brand-name drugs account for the bulk of spending, even though 88% of prescriptions are filled by generics.
  • Example: The same drug can cost 3–10x more in the U.S. compared to India or parts of Europe.
  • Insurers and pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) negotiate rebates, but list prices remain high, sustaining revenue growth.Employer-sponsored insurance, Medicare/Medicaid, and out-of-pocket spending all contribute to broad market coverage for expensive drugs.
  • Many high-cost therapies are reimbursed even when cheaper alternatives (like generics or biosimilars) exist.
  • Faster regulatory approval via FDA gives companies earlier access to revenue streams.

Metric

United States

Global Share

% of Global Pharma Revenue

~42–53% (2024 est.)

% of Global Population

~4.2%

% of R&D Investment

>50% of global total

% of Generic Drug Volume

~88% of U.S. scripts

   

<30% of total revenue



Some notes - Diagnostics

  •  Roche has revenue of ~USD 70 billion, mainly from pharma and 30% through diagnostics. (USD 15.7 billion). Diagnostics include molecular diagnostics, tissue d, diabetes care, professional lab solutions
  • It is the largest player thus in dianostics space which is a USD 85 billion market size.  (estimated to reach 147 billion in 10 years). 
    • Some estimates say 108 billion curren
    • Broader testing market is USD 203 billion
    • Instruments account for the highest portion
    • Overall market growth limited - but India outpaces market significantly.
  • Diagnostics space implies tools, tech and services that detect monitor and manage diseases.
"The diagnostics value chain spans instrument manufacturers, reagent suppliers, lab service providers (institutional and ambulatory), and point-of-care or at-home testing services. Automated platforms and LDTs (laboratory-developed tests) are key components, offering flexibility and innovation under specific regulatory regimes."


CompanyPeriodDiagnostics Segment Revenue
Quest DiagnosticsQ1 2025$2.589 billion (diagnostics only)
Full Year 2024~$9.9 billion (overall, incl. diagnostics)
QiagenQ2 2025Diagnostics +11% growth; no figure given
Full Year 2024$1.978 billion (total revenue)
RocheFull Year 2024~CHF 18.7 billion (~US $20 billion+)
AbbottFull Year 2024$9.34 billion (diagnostics)
Q2 2025$2.28 billion (diagnostics)
Siemens HealthineersFull Year 2024€4.42 billion (diagnostics)
Q3 2025~4% decline in diagnostics sales

 

Thursday, August 14, 2025

Norway SWF - additional pointers

 In 1974 - The Ministry of Finance submits the parliamentary report “The role of petroleum activity in Norwegian society” discussing how the country’s oil wealth should be used.


As a small nation lacking experience in oil and gas but with considerable expertise in hydropower, Norway enacted a revolutionary regulatory framework. Indeed, the seeds of sustainability and subsequent transition to renewable energy were planted by the Storting enacting the “10 oil commandments” in 1971. This legislation shaped Norwegian oil policy for decades by acting as an “oil constitution” which guided and shaped political decisions about oil. It also emphasized the importance of national control over oil and gas resources as well as ensuring a strong emphasis on sustainability. Furthermore, the “go slow” policy played a dual role to both enforce control over oil production and increase the Norway’s bargaining power with big oil companies.  

 and the principle of realist sustainability.


Ten commandments that they set themselves to:

Box 1.1 The 10 Oil Commandments The 10 Oil Commandments are items in a declaration of principles underpinning Norwegian oil policy, submitted by the Standing Committee on Industry in a Storting White Paper dated 14 June 1971. These principles have subsequently been dubbed the 10 Oil Commandments, and represented a clarification of what was needed to make sure that the oil activities would “benefit the entire nation”:

1. That national supervision and control of all activity on the Norwegian continental shelf must be ensured. 
2. That the petroleum discoveries must be exploited in a manner designed to ensure maximum independence for Norway in terms of reliance on others for supply of crude oil
3. That new business activity must be developed, based on petroleum. 
4. That the development of an oil industry must take place with necessary consideration for existing commercial activity, as well as protection of nature and the environment. 
5. That flaring of exploitable gas on the Norwegian continental shelf must only be allowed in limited test periods. 
6. That petroleum from the Norwegian continental shelf must, as a main rule, be landed in Norway, with the exception of special cases in which socio-political considerations warrant a different solution. 
7. That the State involves itself at all reasonable levels, contributes to coordinating Norwegian interests within the Norwegian petroleum industry, and to developing an integrated Norwegian oil community with both national and international objectives. 
8. That a state-owned oil company be established to safeguard the State’s commercial interests, and to pursue expedient cooperation with domestic and foreign oil stakeholders. 
9. That an activity plan must be adopted for the area north of the 62nd parallel which satisfies the unique socio-political factors associated with that part of the country. 
10. That Norwegian petroleum discoveries could present new tasks to Norway’s foreign policy.


Norway’s management of its petroleum revenues is often referred to as an example of successful organisation

The Petroleum Fund is a very long-term savings plan. The notion of a fund arose in the early 1980s, and the Fund was adopted in 1990 before the government had received any positive net cash flow from petroleum activities. Up to 1995, government investments in petroleum activities were so large that all the revenues were used for investment and to cover budget deficits during the recession around 1990


Norway is one of the largest oil producers in the world, but an unconventional one as it has gradually transitioned to renewable sources of energy as a source of income instead of oil. This process has not been without controversy as the Norwegian legal system favours environmental protection and sustainable use of natural resources while also supporting its petroleum industry



In 2015, a look back:

The petroleum activities have been key to the emergence of Norway’s current welfare state. Few believed the industry would have such an immense impact on the Norwegian economy when the first production licences were awarded in the mid-1960s.

The Norwegian authorities refused to sign over the entire shelf to a single company. If the areas were to be opened for exploration, more than one company would be needed. In May 1963, the Government proclaimed sovereignty over the Norwegian continental shelf.

The Norwegian oil era started with the discovery of Ekofisk in 1969. Production from the field started on 15 June 1971, and several large discoveries were made in the following years. In the 1970s, exploration activities were concentrated in the North Sea. The area north of the 62nd parallel was opened for petroleum activity in 1979 and exploration was gradually initiated. Only a limited number of blocks were announced for each licensing round, and the most promising areas were explored first. This led to world-class discoveries, and production from the Norwegian continental shelf has been dominated by these large fields. They were given names such as Ekofisk, Statfjord, Oseberg, Gullfaks and Troll. These fields have been, and are still, very important for the development of petroleum activities in Norway. Development of these large fields has also led to the establishment of infrastructure, enabling tie-in of a number of other fields. Production from several of the major fields is now in decline, and the trend is now development of and production from new, smaller fields. Current Norwegian petroleum production is therefore divided among a larger number of fields than before.

In the early days, the authorities chose a model where the petroleum activities were primarily carried out by foreign companies. They dominated exploration activities and developed the first oil and gas fields. Norwegian participation gradually grew over time with the addition of Norsk Hydro, Saga Petroleum. Statoil was established in 1972 with the State as sole owner. A principle was also established to give the State a 50 per cent ownership interest in each production licence. In 1993, this principle was changed so that an assessment is made in each individual case as to whether there will be State participation, and whether the ownership interest will be higher or lower. In 1999, Saga was acquired by Norsk Hydro, and Statoil was partially privatised in 2001. This led to the establishment of Petoro. Petoro took over administration of the State’s Direct Financial Interest (SDFI), established in 1985, from Statoil. In 2007, Statoil merged with Norsk Hydro’s oil and gas division, and today, about 50 Norwegian and foreign companies are active on the shelf.  



Interesting: "The Norwegian regulatory framework requires oil and gas companies to submit core samples from the drilling of wildcat wells on the Norwegian continental shelf to the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD). The NPD stores 140 kilometres of core samples and drill cuttings from exploration and production wells in their core store. The industry uses these samples to learn more about the subsurface." 


Intyeresting links

https://qmro.qmul.ac.uk/xmlui/bitstream/handle/123456789/72468/3.%20Gociu.pdf?sequence=4

https://www.regjeringen.no/globalassets/upload/oed/pdf_filer_2/faktaheftet/fakta2014og/facts_2014_nett_.pdf

https://snf.no/media/41bep0kg/a02_08.pdf


Monday, August 11, 2025

Norway SWF

Norges Bank Investment Management

Portfolio Total: $1.88 trillion (2024 end). It was USD 16 - 20 billion in 1998, USD 88 billion in 2005, 20 years ago. 
  • Equities: $1.34 trillion 71.4%  8659 companies 63 countries
  • Fixed income: $499 billion 26.6% 1507 bonds, 49 countries
  • Real estate: $34.5 billion 1.8% 910 investments 14 countries
  • Renewable energy infrastructure: $2.41 billion  0.1% 4 countries, 7 investment.

Compared to some other model, they seem to manage a lot themselves. Direct investments in Equity and Debt in 70/30 ratio. 

The fund has a small stake in more than 8,500 companies across most countries and industries. On average, the fund holds 1.5 percent of all listed companies. This makes the fund the world's largest single investor.

The fund exists to help finance the Norwegian welfare state for generations to come. The fund's future value depends on sustainable growth, well-functioning markets and value creation at the companies we own.

As we own a small slice of most of the world's largest companies, we have the ability to influence how they operate. We aim to promote long-term value creation at the companies and minimise negative effects on the environment and society.


Built since 1996 as rainy-day savings, the fund owns about 1.5% of all listed stocks globally and has grown to almost four times the size of Norway's annual gross domestic product, far exceeding original projections.

Norway GDP is ~$483 billion.


Equities  - $ 1.34 trillion portfolio

It owns between 1.2 - 2% of some of the world's largest companies. For example, in Apple it holds 1.22% valued at $46 billion. Following are top 10 holding by market value.

Generally they hold less than 3% in any company. Only 2 companies they have more than 10%. (RE companies in UK and Germany).


Name

Market Value(NOK)

Market Value(USD)

Voting

Ownership

Apple Inc

524,827,595,616

46,210,392,003

1.22

1.22

Microsoft Corp

496,984,325,033

43,758,827,987

1.4

1.4

NVIDIA Corp

488,069,750,932

42,973,911,250

1.31

1.31

Alphabet Inc

332,448,846,184

29,271,691,564

0.88

1.26

Amazon.com Inc

306,413,500,828

26,979,313,029

1.17

1.17

Meta Platforms Inc

224,313,687,214

19,750,530,468

0.6

1.34

Broadcom Inc

189,807,727,430

16,712,325,272

1.54

1.54

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd

174,541,122,608

15,368,120,434

1.8

1.8

Tesla Inc

161,402,245,046

14,211,259,233

1.1

1.1

Berkshire Hathaway Inc

107,702,764,241

9,483,089,298

1.49

0.49



Bonds - $499 billion portfolio

It owns US Govt Bonds of the value of $157 billion. Following are top 10 holdings


Name

Industry

Market Value(NOK)

Market Value(USD)

Incorporation Country

Government of United States of America

Index Linked Bonds/Treasuries

1,788,942,787,833

157,514,102,131

United States

Government of Japan

Index Linked Bonds/Treasuries

275,040,827,017

24,216,989,616

Japan

Government of Germany

Index Linked Bonds/Treasuries

267,331,209,631

23,538,167,762

Germany

Monetary Authority of Singapore

Treasuries

190,363,410,741

16,761,252,470

Singapore

United Kingdom Government

Index Linked Bonds/Treasuries

174,860,021,805

15,396,199,096

United Kingdom

Government of Canada

Index Linked Bonds/Treasuries

120,290,153,393

10,591,392,657

Canada

Government of France

Index Linked Bonds/Treasuries

96,875,539,714

8,529,766,161

France

Government of Italy

Government Related Bonds/Index Linked Bonds/Treasuries

92,413,030,675

8,136,848,004

Italy

Government of the Netherlands

Treasuries

78,867,877,927

6,944,214,797

Netherlands

European Union

Government Related Bonds

62,325,381,271

5,487,669,331

International Organisations






As to how the value grew like that. AI responses some following:

The Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF), officially known as the Government Pension Fund Global, experienced rapid growth primarily due to substantial oil and gas revenues from the North Sea and a prudent fiscal policy that mandates saving a large portion of these revenues. This policy, coupled with the fund's long-term investment strategy, has propelled it to become the world's largest SWF. 

Factor Description
Resource Revenue Discipline Transformed oil & gas surpluses into long-term financial assets
Governance & Ethics Long-term, transparent, ethically grounded investment model
Diversified Portfolio Global allocations across multiple asset classes with reliable returns
Compounding & FX Returns reinvested over decades, boosted by favorable currency moves
Tech-Driven Surges Recent outperformance in global equities, particularly tech stocks

In essence, Norway’s SWF growth is a textbook case of responsible fiscal management, strategic investment, and long-term vision. The sizeable scale of its growth—from USD 16 billion in 1998 to over USD 1.8 trillion today—underscores the success of that model.



In summary, understanding the contribution within the fund


  • Since inception, Norway’s SWF has been seeded with roughly USD 485 billion in oil & gas cash flows.

  • Investment gains (over USD 1 trillion) have outpaced even the petroleum inflows, but the resource cash was the foundation.

  • High oil/gas price years (e.g., 2022–2023) generated over USD 100 billion in new inflows each year, supercharging growth.

  • By 2024, the fund’s size exceeded USD 1.8 trillion—bigger than Australia’s GDP.





And here's the inflow from Petroleum/Gas compared with oil prices




Portfolio Construction

Lets take a look at these couple of heat maps. (Generated working with AI after something similar from internet)

These are return profiles over the last 15 years on a) traditional assets, b) alternative assets and then only c) commodities

a)

b)

c)



Now, given the range of options, any asset manager needs to construct the portfolio carefully from the available opportunities and to arrive at the most optimum risk-return profile. 

How does one allocate capital and construct an optimum portfolio. (Institutions, Wealth)

First, to set the overall tone and objective, here's the investment strategy from Roger Gibson (Asset Allocation, book)



Tailored, all-weather such that one need not abandon it in widely varying markets. And then given what is held already and what is expected in terms of goals. Traditionally, following is the set of asset classes:


And then there is a version which includes alternative asset managers as well.

Perhaps before diving deeper, here's a look a) at the fee as well and risk profile too to complement the above return studies. Additionally, b) some capital allocation percentages. (Again, with AI)

a)

b)


Given this greater granularity, here's again the Investment Management consideration for further perusal:


Now here's a quick look at how the $23 trillion of institutional assets are allocated


So first portfolio construction, then allocating capital according to that construction. Dynamic rebalancing

Capital allocation and portfolio construction -  How do the best people do it. Here again I had a discussion with AI basis some of the classic thinkers in this space. Sharing the list of questions to consider as we arrived at here. Each question opens up the thought in this space and clarifies investment objective:



🧠 Capital Allocation Mental Checklist

Inspired by Munger, Marks, Swensen, Klarman, and Dalio


I. First Principles – Before Any Allocation

  1. What is the true purpose of this capital?
    (Preservation? Growth? Mission? Intergenerational income?)

  2. What is the time horizon for this decision?
    (Will this capital be needed in 1 year, 10 years, 30 years?)

  3. What does success look like—financially and ethically?

  4. Have I inverted the question?

    “What are the ways this investment could go wrong?”


II. Risk Clarity – Not Just Volatility

  1. What is the real risk here?
    (Overpaying? Liquidity mismatch? Permanent loss?)

  2. If everything goes wrong in this investment, what do we still retain?

  3. What are the second- and third-order consequences of this choice?


III. Cycle and Context Awareness

  1. Where are we in the relevant cycles?

    • Interest rate?

    • Credit?

    • Valuation?

    • Inflation?

    • Geopolitical?

  2. Does this investment rely on forecasting, or is it robust across scenarios?

  3. Am I reacting to recency bias or memory of past returns?


IV. Valuation and Margin of Safety

  1. Are we paying a fair price—or a hopeful price?

  2. What is the implied return if nothing good happens?

  3. Is there a margin of safety if we’re wrong?


V. Character and Alignment

  1. Do I understand the incentives and governance behind this investment?

  2. Who benefits most if this fails—us or the manager?

  3. Would we own this if no one else did?

(Klarman: “Be willing to look wrong before you’re proven right.”)


VI. Behavioral Discipline

  1. Am I under pressure—emotional, reputational, or herd-driven?

  2. Would I make this same decision in a quiet room with no news cycle?

  3. Do we have the patience to hold through discomfort if we’re early?


VII. Portfolio Coherence

  1. How does this position complement or crowd other assets we hold?

  2. Does it improve our resilience across future possibilities?

  3. Are we keeping enough optionality (dry powder, liquidity)?











Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Semiconductors


Some of the largest companies in the world by market cap include Semiconductor companies (such as Nvidia with a market cap of USD 3.52 trillion (against Microsoft, which is largest with USD 3.55 trillion market cap). Apple, Amazon and Alphabet follow with market cap between USD 2 to USD 3 trillion. At number 9 is another semiconductor company TSMC with market cap of $1.1 trillion (Broadcom is no. 8 with market cap of $1.17 trillion, this too is related to semiconductors, is a chip designer.)

But first, a broad map of the companies and the industry. 


Samsung seems to operate in both foundries (manufacturing) and integrated device manufacturing, but then it is present in many many industries (and hence its market cap does not figure in top 10, although by revenue, it is perhaps 26 ranked globally, but by market cap, 33rd, and that too recent price increase. What I mean to imply is that there is currently much higher valuation relatively for chip designers than for founderies alone.

For example, see this infographic, showing January 2025 market cap of key semiconductor companies.



What is interesting is the share of market cap of companies in US, because these are mainly design companies. Others are manufacturers. China seems to have small share in market cap. But this is not the true chart of the industry, this just shows valuation - and design IP seems to command a very high premium.

Here again is the first chart now explaining a bit more of the value chain. The top portion shows the key value chain of companies each operating in its unique space - some as designers, some as foundries (manufacturers), some for testing. And the bottom boxes are integrated players, performing all these functions inhouse. (This affects valuation of each set). The middle boxes are service providers or raw material suppliers supplying to both fabless and integrated players.




An indication of revenue: Nvidia is ~$149 billion, Intel is around ~$53 billion, TSMC is around $88.34 billion (this are around pure play. Other big players have several other business interests).


Semiconductor


Now that we see the broad set of players in this space and have some sense of market context, what is a semiconductor?

Semiconductors are critical to modern life. According to economic historian Chris Miller, “You can’t understand the modern world without putting semiconductors at the center of the story.” But many people have a murky understanding of what a semiconductor actually is. A first step would be to break down the word. A conductor is something through which electrons freely move from one type of material to another. Have you ever gotten a shock in the winter from touching a doorknob? That’s because metal is a great conductor of electricity. (In fact, so is the human body, which is why you can sometimes pass the shock on to someone else.) The opposite of a conductor is an insulator, which impedes the flow of electrons from one material to another. Rubber is a great insulator, which is why it’s safe to be inside a car (with rubber tires) during a lightning storm.

A semiconductor is a class of materials that falls somewhere on the continuum between conductor and insulator. Manufacturers process silicon and other materials into wafers, which are then lithographically printed with various functionalities. The wafer is then cut into the chips that make up semiconductor devices, which enable all kinds of machines to harness electricity for processing power. Semiconductors are in greater demand than ever: The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), which is currently transforming manufacturing, production, and, more generally, global business, is characterized by smart computers and connected devices. Smart means connected, and connected means semiconductors.

While semiconductors can create a wealth of opportunity for industries around the world, reliance on semiconductors could also introduce some vulnerabilities. In this Explainer, we’ll explore the pandemic-era semiconductor shortage, how organizations can mitigate the risks associated with reliance on semiconductors, and why semiconductors stand to dominate the next decade in global business.

Rest of the article here.
McKinsey analysis suggests that industry revenues will climb to $1 trillion by 2030 (exhibit). - from around $600 billion in 2021.


In terms of physical dimensions:
As small as a fingernail, semiconductors are arguably the most complex products ever manufactured. A common chip is only about 1 millimeter thick and contains roughly 30 different layers of components and wires called interconnects that make up its complex circuitry. Billions of microscopic switches called transistors make semiconductors work.
According to Intel:


$10-15B - The approximate cost to build a new semiconductor factory or “fab”
$574.1B - Global semiconductor industry sales in 2022

The making, or fabrication, of semiconductors is one of the most complex and sophisticated processes in all of manufacturing. Semiconductor fabrication requires precision down to the nanometer (that’s one-billionth of a meter), atomic ordering, and high chemical purity. And many semiconductor fabrication plants have daily quotas of thousands of wafers and chips.

One key process in semiconductor manufacturing is lithography. Lithography involves coating a wafer with a light-sensitive material called photoresist, shining light through a mask (which contains the chip’s pattern) onto the wafer, and chemically developing the exposed areas of the wafer to reveal the pattern. This patterned layer ultimately serves as the guide for building or removing materials in specific regions of the wafer, which determines the final, detailed structure of the chip.



Strong semiconductor ecosystems can be found all over the world. Here are five of the largest:

  • At just three square miles in size, Hsinchu Science Park in Taiwan is home to three universities, more than 150 semiconductor companies and suppliers, more than 600 manufacturers, and more than 160,000 highly skilled full-time employees.
  • Silicon Saxony, centered in Dresden, Germany, is the largest semiconductor cluster in Europe and contains more than 400 industry actors, universities, and research centers. Over the past 20 years, Saxony has more than doubled the number of employees in the country’s semiconductor industry.
  • In South Korea, the cities of Giheung, Suwon, and Icheon are part of the country’s semiconductor mega cluster. The nation plans to invest about $470 billion through 2047 in partnership with major South Korean electronics companies.
  • China is also a major producer of semiconductors. Shanghai, Beijing, and the provinces of Jiangsu, Fujian, and Guangdong are all hubs. And China is scaling up fast: Of all the fabrication plants that are currently under construction, about half are in China.
  • In the United States, semiconductor companies have announced investments that are estimated to reach $200 billion to $350 billion within the next decade—with the largest investments in Arizona, New York, Ohio, and Texas.



As to what really is a semiconductor:

To a materials scientist, a semiconductor is a crystal with atoms and defects; to a physicist, it has a conduction band and valence band; and to an electrical engineer, it has electrons and holes.
You can see semiconductors in the frame of energy, which typically device physicists do. They see two energy bands – a conduction band and a valence band – and a very important energy gap (aka bandgap) that separates the two. The bands are full of “rooms” for electrons, which are called states. In the conduction band, only some of the states are filled with electrons and the others remain empty, where the electrons can jump into. This is how a semiconductor conducts current. A valence band, which otherwise is full of electrons, has some empty states that are called “holes”. Holes are positive in charge and electrons are negative. They can combine to emit light or generate heat!

If you see through the lens of charges, like an electrical engineer, the current in a semiconductor is generally carried by electrons or holes, or both.

Last but not least, through the lens of a material scientist, we have lattices – a repeated geometrical pattern – of atoms that create a very crystalline structure. Sometimes you will have one or two atoms or more missing from a given set of lattices and those give vacancies, or defects.


--

All information in a computer is transmitted or stored in forms of binary digits – zeros and ones – and these zeros and ones are ‘voltages’ that are generated, transmitted and stored using little switches made out of transistors and diodes, and those are made of semiconductors. Powering up a computer to function also happens through semiconductor switches.