Fiji

• ~950 k people (Less than a million)
• 4th largest after Aus (27m), PNG (11m), NZ (5.3m) in Oceania
• 322 -333 islands in the Pacific Ocean (South Pacific), counted as Oceania?
• The archipelago consists of some 300 islands and 540 islets scattered over about 1,000,000 square miles (3,000,000 square km). Of the 300 islands, about 100 are inhabited. The capital, Suva, is on the southeast coast of the largest island, Viti Levu (“Great Fiji”).
• Suva is the capital
• Languages are English, Fijian and Hindi
• Religions are Christianity, Hinduism and Islam
• The population is dominated by Indigenous Fijians (~56–57%, i) and Indo-Fijians (~37–38%), with a 61% urban population. The main religion is Christianity, followed by Hinduism and Islam.
• Young. median age of 28-29 years
• The native Fijians live throughout the country, while the Indo-Fijians reside primarily near the urban centres and in the cane-producing areas of the two main islands.
• Independence in 1970. After a century of british colonial rule. 
• Colonialism ended in waves. First big wave was 1940s to 1960s. After the Second World War. "A very large share of Asia and Africa decolonized in these decades. This is the period people usually have in mind when they think of “the end of empire.”"  
• "After World War II, colonial empires weakened sharply, but the end of colonialism came in waves, not all at once. European powers were economically exhausted, colonial nationalism had strengthened, and the postwar international climate had turned against empire. The UN also became an important forum pressing decolonization. But different colonies moved at very different speeds depending on settler populations, strategic value, Cold War politics, local resistance, and the interests of the imperial power."
• Fiji came in the second wave.  "Fiji in 1970, Belize in 1981, Vanuatu in 1980, Brunei in 1984, Namibia in 1990, and Palau in 1994, which the UN describes as the last trust territory to become independent." "Hong Kong passed from British rule to China in 1997, Macau from Portuguese rule to China in 1999. So colonial rule ended there, but not through national independence in the usual sense." 
• Several factors kept colonies colonial long after the main wave: smallness (tiny Pacific islands weren't strategically urgent), settler populations who resisted (Algeria, Zimbabwe, South Africa), intransigent regimes (Portugal's dictatorship), and Cold War complications where the US and USSR each had incentives to keep certain regions in their orbit rather than free them cleanly. After the French defeat at Dien Bien Phu in 1954 and the abortive Anglo-French Suez expedition of 1956, decolonization took on irresistible momentum, so that by the mid-1970s only scattered vestiges of Europe's colonial territories remained
• Fiji's independence struggle
• less a mass anti-colonial uprising than a long, tense constitutional negotiation over who would rule after empire ended.  The central issue was not simply “Britain vs Fiji.” It was also how power would be shared inside Fiji among indigenous Fijians, Indo-Fijians, and smaller minority communities once self-government arrived. British colonial rule had reshaped the islands’ demography, especially through the importation of Indian indentured labour from 1879 onward, and by the 20th century Indo-Fijians were a very large part of the population. That made independence inseparable from questions of voting, land, and ethnic balance.  A good way to understand Fiji’s “independence struggle” is as a struggle over the constitution.
• Fiji’s independence struggle was not mainly about driving Britain out by force; it was about negotiating how a multiethnic colony, shaped by empire, could become a sovereign state without one side feeling existentially endangered.
• it is tempting to read Fiji through a simple oppressor-vs-oppressed anti-colonial frame. That is only partly true. The harder reality is that colonialism had already reordered the society so deeply that, by the 1960s, the decisive battle was over the design of the postcolonial state itself.
• Lots of coups in Fiji. Last one was in 2006.
• A series of coups (1987, 2000 and 2006) slowed Fiji's progress to its current parliamentary democracy under the 2013 Constitution of Fiji. 
• independence did not settle the core constitutional tension built into Fiji from the colonial period. The state that emerged in 1970 was trying to balance indigenous Fijian political protection, Indo-Fijian representation, chiefly authority, and Westminster democracy all at once.
• Economy
• GDP of $5.8 billion. High Debt level at ~89% of GDP.
• Tourism is the main engine (40%). Exports of Sugar etc are other engines. Half of rural population is engaged in agriculture. 
• Tourism, ~800k visitors annually (half are Australians). Supports ~120k jobs
• Sugar is a major export, along with coconut products, fish, ginger, and timber.
• Key industries include garment manufacturing, water bottling, and mineral water processing
•  Key exports include water ($271M), refined petroleum ($97.8M), gold ($76.7M), and raw sugar ($61.7M), with top partners being the US and Australia.

Copper - Contd

Previous post here.

"Ever since Thomas Edison’s enterprise laid 80,000 feet of copper wires under streets in Lower Manhattan in 1882, lighting up one square mile, copper has proved its mettle as the metal of electrification. In the century and a half since then, as copper has gone on to wire the world, the staggering growth in consumption has turned it into one of the most important materials of modern civilization."

From Exec Summary, this S&P report here.

Today, the world mines ~23 MMT of copper, and consumes around ~28 MMT (including reuse of scrap) every year. This demand is set to increase to 42 MMT by 2040, driven by Energy, AI and data centres beyond its core uses in economy. 

Now, to contextualise Copper, following analytical insights with AI help:

From the table above, annual average copper:

• 2005: ~$3,676/t

• 2015: ~$5,510/t

• 2024: ~$9,142/t 

On education (a couple of charts)

Education is a positive externality spend by any government (amidst public health, innovation, culture, urban life). Positive externalities are the fingerprints of governance that thinks in generations rather than elections.  indication of long term seed sowing by any government. There is perhaps no immediate gain but a long term generational impact.

"Globally, annual spending on education is estimated at roughly US$5 trillion to over US$7 trillion, depending on whether the data includes only public expenditure or incorporates private,EdTech, and training costs. High-income countries account for approximately 64-65% of this spending, while low-income countries receive less than 0.5%, despite similar school-age populations"

• Of all money spent on education, just 0.5% is spent in low income countries.

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For comparison-- Global defence spending hit a record high of approximately US$2.7 trillion in 2024, marking the tenth consecutive year of increased expenditure.

One of the reasons to justify government intervention in the market for education, is that education generates positive externalities.21 This essentially means that investing in education yields both private and social returns.

• Education systems around the world vary widely in structure, teaching methodologies, and assessment practices.
• 
  
• Most countries organize education into primary, secondary, and tertiary levels, but the ages and duration of each level differ.

Coal

"Coal is the altered remains of prehistoric vegetation that originally accumulated in swamps and peat bogs"

"Coal formation began during the Carboniferous Period – known as the first coal age – which spanned 360 million to 290 million years ago."

• Taking and using coal from earth is using something that cannot be replaced for millions of years. The kind of non-renewable carbon-based fuel usage that last couple of centuries have seen and this century sees is sort of one-off in earth's history and near term future. No wonder Amitav Ghosh refers to this time period as The Great Deranged Age.
• Surface mining of coal for thousands of years
• But in earnest, only last couple of centuries.

"It became important in the Industrial Revolution of the 19th and 20th centuries, when it was primarily used to power steam engines, heat buildings and generate electricity."

Coal mining began in earnest when demand, technology, and transport converged—that moment arrives much later than coal’s first use.

Coal mining began “in earnest” in the late 17th century and truly accelerated in the 18th century, becoming foundational during the Industrial Revolution (c. 1760–1840).

• There are many kinds of coal.  (A succinct set explaining it)

The degree of change undergone by a coal as it matures from peat to anthracite – known as coalification – has an important bearing on its physical and chemical properties and is referred to as the ‘rank’ of the coal. Low rank coals, such as lignite and subbituminous coals are typically softer, friable materials with a dull, earthy appearance. They are characterised by high moisture levels and low carbon content, and therefore a low energy content. Higher rank coals are generally harder and stronger and often have a black, vitreous lustre. They contain more carbon, have lower moisture content, and produce more energy. Anthracite is at the top of the rank scale and has a correspondingly higher carbon and energy content and a lower level of moisture.

 

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Coal is a cornerstone of electricity generation in many countries as well as the single largest source of carbon dioxide emissions globally, placing it at the centre of international dialogues on energy.

• Two-thirds of coal used today is for power generation
• China is the world's largest coal consumer (by far - consumes more coal than the rest of the world combined)

China consumes 30% more coal than the rest of the world put together. It also produces more coal than all other countries combined, and it is the world’s largest importer. This dominance by a single country makes global coal markets very dependent on developments in China, notably those related to economic growth, government policies, energy markets, weather conditions and dynamics in the Chinese domestic coal sector.  

Coal-to-chemicals remains a major driver of coal demand in China due to the scale of its domestic chemical production. 

These technologies have historically been pursued to reduce reliance on oil and gas – mostly imported – and to utilise domestic coal resources, but they remain energy- and waterintensive and emit significant CO₂.  

Coal prices are lower and less volatile than oil or natural gas prices. The widening gap between coal and other energy commodities underscores the competitiveness of coal as an energy carrier.

Some charts from here.

In terms of trade:

Over 70% of global coal export revenues are concentrated in just three countries, which dominate the market in both volume and value: Australia, Indonesia and Russia. 

Largest reserves: