Shipping

Some charts to first understand the lay of the land:

Maritime trade volumes reached 12,292 million tons in 2023, an increase of 2.4 per cent, after contracting in 2022. Global maritime trade outperformed expectations in 2023 due to easing pressures on the global economy and better-than-expected economic performance in large economies.

"According to data published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), globalization has caused a steep increase in maritime trade over the past few decades, with the total volume growing from 4,000 million tons loaded in 1990 to more than 11,000 million tons loaded in 2019. Container shipping in particular has boomed over the past three decades, with total shipping volume growing nearly eightfold since 1990."

The global container shipping industry powers over 80% of international trade.

as over 80% of world trade volume is carried by sea.

1960s. Introduction of specialized bulk carriers
1970s. Globalization and Oil Shock
1980s. Significant fleet expansion leading to overcapacity. Rise of the Baltic Exchange.
1990s: Global Trade Liberalization
2000s: China-Led Supercycle
2008. Baltic Dry Index peak in May (11,793 points) followed by global financial crisis crash
2016. Baltic Dry Index historic low (290 points)
2020. COVID-19 pandemic temporarily disrupts global Dry Bulk shipping patterns
2023. Implementation of IMO 2023 carbon intensity regulations
2024. Red Sea crisis affecting major trading routes on top of ongoing Panama Canal drought
2025. Projected timeline for mainstream adoption of alternative fuels

Containers are a small part of global total fleet but one of the fastest growing part. And why it is relevant because value wise - it is one of the high value trade. (following 2020 chart) - as most of the dry bulk are raw materials, while containerized products are final finished products. And the way consumer economy has grown in last 30-40 years is best reflected by container growth.

Roughly 70%+ of Turkey’s steel comes from Electric Arc Furnaces (EAFs), which melt down scrap steel.Countries like China, Japan, South Korea, Germany rely heavily on Blast Furnaces (BF) + Basic Oxygen Furnaces (BOF), which process iron ore and coke.

Following as of 2022: Container shipping companies. (total 6408 active ships)

As of 2025: Market share too

Here are the Top 10 Shipping Lines in the World (2025) by TEU capacity:

🚢 1. MSC – 6.4 million TEUs | 20.2% Market Share | 🇨🇭 Switzerland
🚢 2. Maersk – 4.5 million TEUs | 14.3% | 🇩🇰 Denmark
🚢 3. CMA CGM – 3.87 million TEUs | 12.7% | 🇫🇷 France
🚢 4. COSCO – 3.35 million TEUs | 10.6% | 🇨🇳 China
🚢 5. Hapag-Lloyd – 2.35 million TEUs | 7.4% | 🇩🇪 Germany
🚢 6. ONE – 1.98 million TEUs | 6.2% | 🇯🇵 Japan
🚢 7. Evergreen – 1.79 million TEUs | 5.7% | 🇹🇼 Taiwan
🚢 8. HMM – 913K TEUs | 2.9% | 🇰🇷 South Korea
🚢 9. ZIM – 781K TEUs | 2.5% | 🇮🇱 Israel
🚢 10. Yang Ming – 711K TEUs | 2.2% | 🇹🇼 Taiwan

China remains at the top of the list with 269 million TEUs, with no other place even coming close to these volumes. The country's maritime trade dominance is owed largely to its thriving business of exporting electronics, fashion and other consumer goods. For example, the People's Republic exported ICT goods like computers, electronic components and consumer electronics worth $858 billion in current prices in 2021, more than double the amount of the second-ranked region Hong Kong with $410 billion, according to UNCTAD data.

https://unctad.org/publication/review-maritime-transport-2024

Ocean Economy/ Maritime - including trade

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Baltic Dry Index

Baltic Dry Index (BDI): A composite of shipping costs across major routes; often seen as a real-time indicator of global economic health.

The Baltic Exchange is a London-based marketplace and information provider that sits at the heart of global shipping. Think of it as the shipping world’s equivalent of a stock exchange 📈🚢—but instead of trading equities, it facilitates the buying and selling of shipping contracts and provides trusted benchmarks for freight rates. operates as part of the Singapore Exchange (SGX) (since 2016).

Traditionally, Capesize vessels between 120K MT and 220K MT of deadweight carried the most Dry Bulk in 2023, with their combined shipments totalling just over 1.5bn MT

How It’s Calculated

Daily Market Assessments
Shipbrokers around the world submit price estimates for chartering different classes of bulk carriers (ships that carry dry cargo like coal, iron ore, or grain).
Four Vessel Types
The BDI is a composite index built from rates across four classes of dry bulk ships:
- Capesize (≈180,000 deadweight tons, usually iron ore/coal, can’t pass through Panama Canal)
- Panamax (≈65,000–80,000 DWT, sized for the Panama Canal, often grain/coal)
- Supramax (≈50,000–60,000 DWT, versatile for ports with smaller facilities)
- Handysize (≈28,000–40,000 DWT, smaller, flexible routes like regional grain trade)
Weighting
Each ship type gets a weight in the index according to its share of global trade.
Final Index
The Baltic Exchange blends these rates into a single number: the BDI. Published daily.

Why It Moves So Wildly

No Speculation: Unlike oil or stocks, the BDI is based on real contracts—supply and demand for ships.
Low Elasticity: Ship supply can’t quickly adjust (it takes ~2 years to build a new vessel). A small change in demand (say, China buying less iron ore) can swing prices a lot.
Seasonality: Grain harvests, monsoons, or ice seasons shift demand.
Global Trade Cycles: It rises in boom times (lots of building and steel demand), crashes in slowdowns.

🌍 Why It Matters Beyond Shipping

Economic Indicator: Traders watch it as a leading signal of global industrial activity. If the BDI falls sharply, it often hints at cooling demand for raw materials.
Volatile Pulse: In 2008, at the peak of the commodities boom, the BDI hit over 11,000. By the financial crisis, it collapsed by more than 90% in just a few months.
Investment Use: Some hedge funds and economists treat it like an early-warning radar for global slowdowns or recoveries.

Capesize vs. Panamax Dynamics: Different ship classes reveal nuances—e.g., Panamax routes reflect agricultural exports; Capesize often signal iron/steel trades.

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the industry's primary rate benchmark, has witnessed extreme fluctuations:

Pre-2008 Boom. Rates reached unprecedented highs driven by Chinese demand growth
2008-2016 Bust. Oversupply and reduced demand growth led to prolonged depression in rates
2016-2019 Recovery. Gradual improvement as fleet growth moderated
2020 Pandemic Impact. Initial sharp decline followed by surprising strength as stimulus measures boosted commodity demand
2021-2023. Sustained strength in rates due to supply chain disruptions and strong commodity demand

Dry Bulk:

Asia-Pacific (37% of global market share)

The region dominates the Dry Bulk shipping industry, contributing over 37% of the revenue share in 2023. This dominance is attributed to robust economic expansion, industrial activities, and the strategic location of major ports.

China: The world's largest importer of Iron Ore and a major Coal importer. In 2024, it accounted for over 74% of global seaborne iron ore imports by volume and more than 31% of seaborne coal shipments. China's owned fleet has surpassed Greece's in gross tonnage. Chinese state-owned COSCO Group operates one of the largest Dry Bulk fleets globally, with over 340 vessels.
Japan: Home to “K” Line, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL), and Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NYK Line), which collectively control a significant portion of the global Dry Bulk fleet.
India: Rapidly growing market with expanding steel production and energy needs, increasing dry bulk import requirements by an average of 3.8% annually since 2018.

Europe (22% of global market share)

Greece: Despite being surpassed by China in total tonnage, Greek shipowners like Star Bulk Carriers and Diana Shipping remain influential players in the dry bulk sector.
Norway: Specializes in advanced maritime technology and environmentally efficient vessels.

North America

The region plays a substantial role, driven by robust agricultural exports and imports of industrial materials. The United States, one of the largest grain exporters, relies heavily on dry bulk vessels to transport its agricultural products to international markets. In 2024, it holds a 21% share of the grain export market.

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