Thursday, November 20, 2025

Vaccines - some charts

Immunization saves an estimated 4.4 million lives a year, helping children survive and thrive,
benefiting a wider community.
Public Health
• Vaccination saves an estimated 4-5 million lives each year and an additional 1.5 million are avoidable2
• Vaccines protect the whole community via herd immunity
  • In terms of dollars, following is the market size after Covid years. In 2023, ~USD 80 billion. Pre-Covid, $40 billion market.
  • In terms of Volume, SII is the largest player (India govt). But in value, Pfizer.
  • One of the chart is worth studying in detail - the top 20 vaccines, and their supply dynamics.

The Expanded Programme on Immunization is a global health initiative launched by the World Health Organization in May 1974, with the aim to make vaccines available to all globally
Vaccination has been one of the most impactful public health interventions of the past century.


The global vaccines market size reached USD 86.35 billion in 2024 and is predicted to hit around USD 161.4 billion by 2034, growing at a notable CAGR of 6.45%. Adult vaccination, including those for COVID-19, comprised 75% in terms of volume globally, while pediatric vaccines accounted for the remaining market share 
The vaccines market stands as a testament to medical science's ability to prevent disease and save lives on a global scale. With continued innovation, investment, and commitment to public health, the industry is well-positioned to address emerging health challenges and contribute to a healthier future for global populations







Globally, approximately 132 million babies are born each year,

Total global market volumes were approximately 7 billion doses in 2023, almost half of the 2022 volumes, a notable decrease due to reduced purchases of COVID-19 vaccines. In total, 50% of volumes were accounted for by three vaccines: oral polio (OPV), COVID-19 and seasonal influenza vaccines.

The global vaccine market remains highly concentrated between a limited number of manufacturers, with the largest 10 manufacturers accounting for 73% of vaccine dose volumes and capturing 85% of global financial value. More than 90 manufacturers account for the remaining global volumes. Manufacturers affiliated with the Developing Country Vaccine Manufacturers Network (DCVMN) sold more than 50% of vaccine doses procured globally, representing 11% of the global financial value, while manufacturers affiliated with the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers
& Associations (IFPMA) accounted for approximately 85% of financial value, representing 34% of total volume.

The global vaccine market size in 2023 was seven billion doses (Fig. 1a), corresponding to a financial valuea of US$ 77 billion (Fig. 1b), defined as the volume multiplied by the acquisition cost/price of the vaccine by the end purchaser. This number corresponds to approximately 5% of the total pharmaceutical market revenue measured in US$ in 2023. (5) The market size fell by US$ 47 billion (corresponding to a volume of 6 billion doses) compared with 2022, almost entirely resulting from the purchase of fewer COVID-19 vaccine doses.

 














Wednesday, November 19, 2025

ASX #8 CSL Limited

  1.  Market Cap of AUD 87 billion. (8th largest ASX stock), Largest healthcare stock in Aus
  2. Annual Revenue of USD 15.6 billion. Global biopharma company. Three key divisions
    1. CSL Behring - Rare and serious diseases. USD 11.1 billion
    2. CSL Seqirus - Influenza. USD  2.16 billion
    3. CSL Vifor - Iron deficinecy USD 2.2 billion
  3. 29000 global employees
  4. Global Manufacturing Presence
  5. Key players in vaccine (influenza) include Sanofi and GSK.
  6. PAT 3.1 billion
  7. Share price has been declining.

















ASX #11 Fortescue Metals Group

  1.  Market Cap of AUD 61.7 billion. Third largest mining company in Australia by market cap.
  2. Total Iron ore shipped 198.4 million tonnes (FY25) - this is third largest iron ore australia after Rio Tinto (world's second largest 328 Mt), BHP (263 Mt)
  3. Young company. Founded in 2003 as Iron Ore production company
  4. Revenue 2025 lower than 2024. FY ending June. Revenue USD 15.5 billion.  (2024 was 18.22 billion) - price of mineral/hematite was lower for the period. Shipments seem to have increased slightly.
  5. 2 operating segments
    1. Metals - Iron ore mainly (Hematite and Magnetite)
    2. Energy - new, Undertaking activities in the global development of green electricity, green hydrogen, green ammonia projects, as well as green technology development and manufacturing.
  6. Underlying EBITDA 7.94 billion
  7. NPAT USD 3.3 billion
  8. Production cost has slightly reduced over 2025
  9. Five year numbers show lower revenue over time.  - Although shipments have risen.




















Tuesday, November 18, 2025

ASX #3 Rio Tinto

  1.  Market Cap AUD 182 billion. 3rd largest ASX after CBA and BHP. One of the largest globally.
  2. 55,000 employees
  3. Production
    1. Iron Ore - ~328 Mt. (2nd largest globally after Vale. Larger than BHP. Global 2.5 billion tonnes
    2. Aluminium - Bauxite 58.6 million tonnes.  (total global is 370 million tonnes). Perhaps the largest bauxite company. Aluminium of 3.2 million tonnes.  (Perhaps higher in raw material)
      1. Global aluminium production was approximately 72 million tonnes in 2024
    3. Copper - total 624 kt. refined copper 248k tonnes. (PArtner with BHP on Escondida, BHP majrity)
    4. Minerals - Diamonds, Borate, Iron ore pellets, titanium di oxide
  4. Revenue. Total 53.6 billion (CY23 54 billion) - perhaps per tonne impact yet to come through (BHP reports June. While this, Rio does Dec reporting)
    1. Iron Ore USD 29.339 billion (larger than BHP in this segment.)
    2. Alum segment revenue$ 13.6 billion
    3. Copper segment revenue $9.2 billion (to check revenue volume value - seems higher than price per tonne basis) - pehaps gets adjusted in share of equity accounting/
    4. Minerals $5.5 billion
  5. EBITDA of 23.314 billion/ PAT of $11.57 billion (Slightly lower P/E than BHP)
(BHP is big in Copper, then iron and coking coal. Rio is big in iron ore (2nd largest), alumin, and then Copper)